For N=4N = 4N=4: 4×1/8=1/24 \times 1/8 = 1/24×1/8=1/2. That matches our simulation. But we can only add probabilities when the events are mutually exclusive (no two can happen at the same time). Can two of these events overlap?
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规模更小、供应链议价能力更弱的品牌，遭受的冲击会更猛烈，进而陷入“成本上涨—产品失去竞争力—销量下滑—进一步削弱采购话语权”的恶性循环。魅族只是在这场行业海啸中最先被拍上岸的礁石而已。